An area of showers & thunderstorms between Cuba and the Yucatán peninsula of Mexico has been flagged for potential tropical development. If it becomes a storm it will be only the 2nd in recorded history in the month of February.
Among the types of weather that one does not expect to have to deal with in the United States for the first weekend in February is that of tropical systems. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June through the end of November. In the eastern Pacific Ocean, that time frame is the middle of May through the middle of November. The off months are typically just that – very, very off. Plunging storms from Canada across the eastern United States typically keep the dominant winds far too strong and the air far too cool and dry to support tropical development. This winter has admittedly been a rather odd one for the eastern 2/3 of the North American continent – being exceptionally warm when compared to average, and also exceptionally snow free. In light of that, satellite reports this morning make a bit more sense.
An area of disturbed weather between the western tip of Cuba and the eastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula has recently formed and continued to persist for about a day now. If it continues to do so and become more well organized, it could be declared a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before an expected landfall in southwestern Florida on Monday evening – with the area near Fort Meyers having the highest probabilities at this point in time.
The current forecast for the out-of-season tropical disturbance brings the system ashore in southwestern Florida by late Monday.
The potential storm is not expected to become that strong – perhaps only getting to be a minimal 40mph tropical storm with some higher gusts in squalls. Still, this is highly abnormal for this time of year. If the disturbed weather does become a tropical system, it will only be the second February tropical system in recorded history. The previous known tropical system on record for February was the 1952 Groundhog Day storm, taking south Florida by surprise with winds of 50mph sustained, gusting to over 60mph.
Early appearance of a tropical storm is not necessarily indicative of the length or intensity of a hurricane season to come. In 1952, the Atlantic would remain quiet until the middle of August, and only see six additional storms – ending up as a below average season. If a storm does form, though, it will be the fifth time since 2003 that there has been tropical development before the official start of hurricane season.