Mar 112012
 

Coming off the riots and deaths that resulted from the revealing of Koran burnings last month it was hard to imagine relations between NATO troops in Afghanistan and the local populace being able to sink much further, until today.

According to U.S. sources, a lone soldier wandered off base in the middle of the night, began entering the homes of civilians, and opening fire. There are conflicting totals as to the number killed, but reliable estimates are between 15 – 18. A number of the victims were also doused in flammable liquid and set on fire. A number of women and children are among the dead, and military forces are promising a full investigation.

Protests against the killings have already begun locally, but the news has likely reached the West much faster than it has the Afghan countryside:

The White House voiced “deep concern” and Nato-led forces in Afghanistan promised a rapid inquiry.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has condemned the attack and demanded an explanation from Washington.

BBC correspondents say there could be a furious backlash when news of the attack reaches the wider public.

In Kandahar’s Panjwai district, local people have gathered near the base to protest about Sunday’s killings, and the US embassy is advising against travel to the area.

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Mar 102012
 
Humbled by merely receiving less than 64% of the vote instead of the 70's, a teary eyed Vladimir Putin celebrated his Presidential election victory, starting a new six year term next month.

Humbled by merely receiving less than 64% of the vote instead of the 70's, a teary eyed Vladimir Putin celebrated his Presidential election victory, starting a new six year term next month.`

On the 4th of March, Russians took to the polls to confirm one of the larger locks in elections that will be held in 2012. The cavernous loophole in the Russian constitution that restricts a President to a limit of two consecutive terms, but not a limit on how many terms total, was easily exploited in a highly predictable fashion by now President-elect Vladimir Putin. With the electoral machine that is the United Russia party behind him, he crushed all competition in the vote, securing nearly 64% and ushering in another six years of his rule (prior to 2012, Presidential terms were four years, so quite probably at least another twelve).

Mr. Putin has spent the last four years in the Russian Duma as Prime Minister. The Russian constitution does not divide up power between the executive and the legislative branches as the United States does. Instead of concentrating power in the executive, the President and Prime Minister in Russia serve as co-executive in chiefs. While the President gets more face time, Mr. Putin as Prime Minister still had plenty of power for himself.

The outgoing President, Dmitry Medvedev, was pushed into the office in his own electoral landslide that was helped on by ringing endorsements from Mr. Putin in 2008. While essentially a seat warmer for Mr. Putin, Mr. Medvedev did manage to push an agenda of his own which included economic modernization, moving away from relying so much on fossil fuel profits, guiding his country through the Great Recession, “resetting” relations with the United States, signing the New START treaty, and winning the South Ossetia War against the tiny nation of Georgia. Still, when it came time in late 2011 to make the decision official, Mr. Medvedev announced he would once again fade into the background and pave the way for the “return” of Mr. Putin.

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Mar 092012
 
Iranian President Ahmadinejad votes in legislative elections on 2 March which took power from him and handed it to backers of the religious theocracy.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad votes in legislative elections on 2 March which took power from him and handed it to backers of the religious theocracy.

Iranians turned out in droves to vote in elections on the 2nd of March. Results for seats that do not require a runoff vote in April show a changing political landscape in the troubled country – a power grab by allies of Ayatollah Khamenei, a fracturing and subsequent decimation of the ruling Conservative majority, and a continued almost non-existence of reformists.

It is hard to accept Iranian election results as an accurate and fair expression of the will of the people. In actuality the country is a hybrid dictatorship and democracy – that is, democracy exists in so much as the Ayatollah allows it to exist. In the 2009 Presidential election there, the Reformist candidate, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, appeared to be vastly ahead in polls and in leaked “official” vote totals. The political establishment of Iran (the Ayatollah and his backers) through the weight of the state behind the incumbent Ahmadinejad. People took to the streets for months of protests that gave hope that true democracy may be able to flourish in Iran. Over time those hopes, and the movement, was violently crushed and repressed by the Iranian government.

This time around for the legislative elections, the Iranian establishment looked to prevent any such repeat outpouring of emotion from the people. With the repression still fresh in the minds of many in the Reformist camp, many withdrew from the electoral process and did not run at all. There were calls for believers of the Reformist cause to boycott the polls as well, though with a turnout of over 64% that call wasn’t listened to so well.

This, on paper, should have cleared the path for a crushing victory for the Conservative coalition. Unfortunately for it, they were still led by President Ahmadinejad – who has done his best to draw the ire of the Ayatollah himself.

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Mar 012012
 
Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) came within three votes of putting employers' "morals" in charge of health care.

Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) came within three votes of putting employers' "morals" in charge of health care.

Continuing the 19th century furor over healthcare coverage for contraceptives being a good thing or not, the Senate held a barn-burner of a vote today over the so-called Blunt Amendment, which would have allowed any employer (read: not health care provider) to cut health care coverage for any treatment that it disagreed with on “moral reasons”. The amendment was shot down by a narrow 51-48 margin – a party-line vote save for three Democrats caucusing with the Republicans, and one Republican crossing over to the Democrats position.

That amendment would have overrode a previous feature of President Obama’s health care law that mandated healthcare providers cover preventative care including contraception. The provision became wrapped up in political showboating by Republican contenders for the White House exploiting the concerns of Roman Catholic bishops. As of this writing there is no word on whether the Roman Catholic Church has eliminated the whole “child rape” epidemic within their ranks, though there is apparently time to spare to try to demand legislation on “immoral” forms of health care.

Senate Republicans sound like they are committed to running with this torch:

“This is just the beginning,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on the Senate floor before the vote. “If the government is allowed to tell people to buy health care, it won’t stop there. I wonder what’s next? This isn’t about one particular religion — it’s about the right of any American to live out their faith without the government picking and choosing which doctrines they’re allowed to follow.”

If the amendment made it, it would have rolled back protections against denying health care for pre-existing conditions, especially for women:

 For instance, under the amendment, an employer could refuse to cover things like HIV/AIDS screenings, prenatal care for single mothers, mammograms, vaccinations for children and even screenings for diabetes based on objections to a perceived immoral lifestyle.

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Feb 292012
 
Departure from normal of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on December 26, 2011 (left), and February 27, 2012 (right), show a rapid eroding of La Niña and the potential start of an El Niño pattern.

Departure from normal of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on December 26, 2011 (left), and February 27, 2012 (right), show a rapid eroding of La Niña and the potential start of an El Niño pattern.

A large change in ocean temperature patterns is underway in the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, as it appears La Niña – the colder than average water temperature phenomenon which has lingered in varying strengths for the past two years – is drawing to a close.

While offset in the eastern 2/3 of the North American continent by Atlantic-based atmospheric influences, the first year of La Niña helped contribute to an active, cold weather pattern across much of the United States. This winter the effects were more limited to the western coast of North America and especially Alaska, where snow pummeling by the foot have continued throughout the winter.

La Niña has also influenced the last two Atlantic hurricane seasons – providing more favorable wind conditions over the regions of the ocean where storms spin up, helping contribute to back-to-back 19-storm seasons, which was 97.9% above the 1950 – 2000 average of 9.6 storms per year. (Tropical storms becoming hurricanes was suppressed in 2011 by an unusual amount of dry air from Africa, in spite of favorable winds.)

La Niña has also helped keep global temperatures from setting monthly and yearly records, with a huge region of the Pacific kept with air temperatures a couple of degrees below normal to compensate for the lower water temperatures.

Typically the pendulum swings from one state to the other (though not necessarily with similar extremes) so as La Niña departs, conditions appear favorable for its much more well known counterpart - El Niño – to develop by year’s end. What will that mean, in general, for weather patterns over the next year?

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Feb 272012
 
Some 66% of Yemen's voting public turned out to end a multi-decade dictatorship. Unfortunately for all their efforts, the only ballot choice was another member of the same party.

Some 66% of Yemen's voting public turned out to end a multi-decade dictatorship. Unfortunately for all their efforts, the only ballot choice was another member of the same party.

Officially on the 25th of February, Yemen became the fourth country to see an overthrow of a dictatorship thanks to the Arab Spring movement. Protests began on the 27th of January last year, demanding government reforms and an end to the single party state that has dominated the country for decades. President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled the country since 1990, decided to step down and hand over power after being nearly killed in a shelling attack on his compound during some of the more violent stages of the uprising. The end result was an “election” for a new leader, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi, who has gone on to become the country’s new president.

Al-Hadi didn’t have what could be considered a difficult campaign season – in fact he had little of any to speak of whatsoever. He was the only candidate on the ballot and, according to state sources, with some 65% turnout Al-Hadi won the ‘election’ with a 99.8% margin. A vote total that great puts him right there in the upper echelon of products of sham dictatorial elections and illusions of democracy so transparent, only those with their head willingly buried in the sand could miss it.

Sadly, topping the list of having said heads buried in the sand is the United States, which enthusiastically embraced the “election” results:

President Barack Obama called Hadi to congratulate him and to say that the United States “will stand with the people of Yemen as they continue their efforts to forge a brighter future for their country,” according to a White House statement.

“Under President Hadi’s leadership, Yemen has the potential to serve as a model for how peaceful transitions can occur when people resist violence and unite under a common cause,” Obama said, warning that much work still lies ahead.

Before Hadi took power, the Yemeni government had been engulfed in anti-Saleh protests and for years has been fighting al Qaeda militants.

With that official recognition and ceremonies wrapping up to mark the occasion, Yemen becomes the first state to see an outright Arab Spring failure. The most the country was able to do was overthrow one dictatorship for another with a member of the exact same party with, largely, the exact same political infrastructure surviving intact.

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Feb 232012
 
Unemployment almost tripling in four years, the stock market in an 85% death dive, and more austerity on the way, the situation for Greece continues to look hopeless at best.

Unemployment almost tripling in four years, the stock market in an 85% death dive, and more austerity on the way, the situation for Greece continues to look hopeless at best.

The austerity expiernment continues in Greece with progressively worse results. The latest chapter in this multi-year disaster was announced to the Greek people earlier this week, as Euro-backing countries had agreed to send Greece another €130 billion in loans to stave off a potential default by the end of March – a potential default that would probably see Greece ejected from the Euro currency, triggering a hyper-inflation environment there and shaking the foundation of the rest of the Euro countries, potentially leading to a disintegration of the currency zone itself.

In essence, Greece agreed to keep the Euro alive a bit longer.

The debt payments coming up at the end of March that need to be made to avoid a default, by the way, are primarily to European banks and European countries. Of the roughly €340 billion in total Greek debt out there €40 billion is held by France, €24 billion by Germany, and just over €10 billion by the United Kingdom. Those three countries make up over 20% of all the outstanding debt. Another 21% is held by the European Central Bank & International Monetary Fund. The ECB and IMF are two of the major powers dictating the amounts and terms of the loans to Greece, which will in turn be used to pay them back for money they loaned earlier.

Re-read the last couple sentences a few times until it makes sense.

Now, what sort of terms have been dictated to the Greeks, as part of participating in this wild debt game?

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Feb 222012
 
The 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill is still causing tremendous ill effects on the wildlife of the Gulf Coast long after the most visible pictures faded away, and BP's profits recovered.

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill is still causing tremendous ill effects on the wildlife of the Gulf Coast long after the most visible pictures faded away, and BP's profits recovered.

This April 20th will mark two full years since the start of one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S. history. It was on that date that the Deepwater Horizon oil drilling rig caught fire and sank, killing 11 on board and kicking off the release of as much as 4.9 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. British Petroleum, the company with the most visible ties to the oil platform and subsequent disaster, saw its value plummet by nearly 55% within two months. Beaches from Florida to Texas saw tarballs, oil, and dead aquatic life wash up on their shores. The fishing industry was all but wiped out in 2010 – with as much as 36% of the Gulf closed at one time to fishing, and fears from the public driving down demand and cost for what was hauled in from the catch.

Time heals wounds though, for BP at least:

On Tuesday, Robert W. Dudley, BP’s chief executive, told reporters in London that BP was “on the right path” as the company reported $7.7 billion in profit for the fourth quarter of 2011, a 38 percent increase from a year earlier. BP said production was up substantially from the previous quarter, and it expected its cash flow by 2014 to surge 50 percent past that of 2011, giving the company the financial strength to invest in exploration and pay even higher dividends.

While not back to its pre-spill valulation, BP has gained more than 76% in value since June of 2010. The company suspended its dividend in 2010 but reinstated it in 2011, albeit at half of what it once was before the crisis. Still, U.S. investors have received more than $5.3 billion in dividend payments from the company since 2011, and things are looking on the up and up. What about for the Gulf coast states, though? It’s a slightly different story.

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Feb 212012
 
JotForm is a website that allows users to create surveys and forms to collect information. On the 16th of February, without explanation, the U.S. Secret Service decided this site should no longer exist.

JotForm is a website that allows users to create surveys and forms to collect information. On the 16th of February, without explanation, the U.S. Secret Service decided this site should no longer exist.

In the wake of the Megaupload take down, and the proposition for a myriad of new bills in Congress that would severely curtail freedom on the Internet, the spotlight of U.S. authorities actions on the Internet has perhaps never been as bright as it is today. Enter the story of JotForm.

JotForm is an online application that allows someone to create forms for surveys to collect information – polls or otherwise. It is free for anyone to create a form, though there are priced options available for professional organizations or anyone who winds up having an extremely popular form to fill out and bandwidth becomes a concern. When ruminations about regulating sites that allow for “user-generated content” are discussed, JotForm is one of the countless websites that falls under that banner – they provide the back end, users create the forms on their own.

JotForm has had a problem with nefarious users taking advantage of their form software to collect information from unknowing Internet users – a process commonly referred to as phishing. The company, using filtering, discovered and deleted over 65,000 such forms within the past year – but that was apparently not enough, or not the right ones for the U.S. Secret Service. Apparently a simple order from the Secret Service to the company that controlled JotForm’s domain name, GoDaddy, was enough to remove the business from the internet without so much as a notice to the actual site owner:

Popular site JotForm doesn’t host music or movies or child pornography, all of which have led US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to seize other Internet domain names without advance warning (sometimes making serious mistakes). JotForm also doesn’t create content itself. Instead, it helps customers create online forms that can then be embedded in their websites for easy data collection.

But that didn’t spare the site from having its entire business shuttered without warning yesterday as the site’s domain name was shut down at the request of the US Secret Service. JotForm’s domain name registrar, GoDaddy, redirected the site’s nameservers to NS1.SUSPENDED-FOR.SPAM-AND-ABUSE.COM—and with that, JotForm.com became unreachable and the site’s two million user-created forms all broke.

And it all may have been done without a court order.

When he saw his site was down, JotForm cofounder Aytekin Tank scrambled. He checked in with GoDaddy, which told him that the site had been suspended as part of an ongoing investigation.

“We’re very sorry, but your business can no longer exist.”

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Feb 202012
 
The National Weather Service uses the Internet to disseminate warning information to people all around the country. Under the proposed 2013 U.S. Budget, all the staff who ensure those systems work would be cut.

The National Weather Service uses the Internet to disseminate warning information to people all around the country. Under the proposed 2013 U.S. Budget, all the staff who ensure those systems work would be cut.

With the 2013 budget proposal now released by the Obama Administration, priorities of the White House can be more accurately determined. Science continues to take a back seat in the United States, with another year full of NASA-gutting, which I’ll get into at a later time. I suppose if it is no big deal to cut the budget for scientific space exploration, it isn’t that much of a leap of faith to arrive at the reality of cutting the budget for terrestrial science in general and meteorology specifically.

The $911 million 2012 fiscal year operating budget of the National Weather Service is set to be cut by over 4% to $872 million. The trimming would save $39 million dollars or expressed another way, 26.557 minutes of the Pentagon’s expected 2013 budget. So, what do you lose by trimming less than 27 minutes of Pentagon activity? All of the information technology operator positions, ITOs, across the country would be let go. The ITO is the person who ensures all the technology at a local weather office is working, provides an extra set of eyes in busy severe weather situations if needed, and helps facilitate the transfer of information from weather forecasting systems to the much-easier-on-the-eyes output that one would see on the National Weather Service’s website.

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